Key Data and Analysis
FIRE number by annual expenses and safe withdrawal rate
| Annual Expenses | 3% SWR (Conservative) | 3.5% SWR (Moderate) | 4% SWR (Classic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $24,000 | $800,000 | $685,700 | $600,000 |
| $36,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,028,600 | $900,000 |
| $48,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,371,400 | $1,200,000 |
| $60,000 | $2,000,000 | $1,714,300 | $1,500,000 |
| $80,000 | $2,666,700 | $2,285,700 | $2,000,000 |
ℹ️Why 25x Is Not Always Enough
The 25x multiple (4% SWR) is designed for 30-year retirements. For a 35-year-old retiring at 40 with a potential 55-year retirement, a 3.5% SWR (28.6x expenses) is more appropriate based on historical simulation data.
Deeper Analysis
Safe withdrawal rate portfolio survival rates by time horizon
| SWR | Portfolio Survival Rate (30 yr) | Portfolio Survival Rate (40 yr) | Recommended For |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | 99%+ | 98%+ | Very early retirees, extreme conservatism |
| 3.5% | 97%+ | 95%+ | Early retirees (40-50), most scenarios |
| 4.0% | 95%+ | 87% | Traditional retirees (55-65) |
| 4.5% | 89% | 77% | High risk tolerance, flexibility to cut |
| 5.0% | 80% | 65% | Not recommended for primary FIRE strategy |
Calculate Your FIRE Number and Timeline
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