Key Data and Analysis
10-item FIRE verification checklist (items 1-10)
| # | Check Item | Pass Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FIRE number vs. actual portfolio | Portfolio ≥ 110% of FIRE number |
| 2 | Expense estimate accuracy | Track actual expenses 12 months minimum |
| 3 | Healthcare plan | Specific plan for pre-Medicare years with cost |
| 4 | Cash buffer ready | 2-3 years of expenses in cash/short-term bonds |
| 5 | Roth conversion ladder started | 5-year ladder in progress if needed |
| 6 | Tax strategy documented | Year 1-5 withdrawal tax plan completed |
| 7 | Social Security analysis | When to claim modeled, expected benefit known |
| 8 | Insurance review | Life, disability, umbrella insurance appropriate at FIRE |
| 9 | Estate documents | Will, POA, beneficiaries current |
| 10 | Sequence-of-returns stress test | Portfolio modeled at -40% in Year 1 and survives |
Many FIRE planners recommend targeting 110-115% of your FIRE number before retiring. The extra 10-15% provides: buffer for early market downturns, healthcare underestimates, and unexpected expenses. It also combats One More Year syndrome by giving a clear, defined surplus trigger.
Deeper Analysis
FIRE checklist items 11-15
| # | Check Item | Pass Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | One More Year temptation addressed | Clear trigger criteria defined and committed to |
| 12 | Purpose beyond work | Clear activities, projects, relationships planned |
| 13 | Partner alignment | Both partners agree on FIRE date and lifestyle |
| 14 | Geographic plan | Location decision made, cost-of-living validated |
| 15 | Conservative scenario still works | Plan survives 5% real return and 3.5% SWR |
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