Key Data and Analysis

10-item FIRE verification checklist (items 1-10)

#Check ItemPass Criteria
1FIRE number vs. actual portfolioPortfolio ≥ 110% of FIRE number
2Expense estimate accuracyTrack actual expenses 12 months minimum
3Healthcare planSpecific plan for pre-Medicare years with cost
4Cash buffer ready2-3 years of expenses in cash/short-term bonds
5Roth conversion ladder started5-year ladder in progress if needed
6Tax strategy documentedYear 1-5 withdrawal tax plan completed
7Social Security analysisWhen to claim modeled, expected benefit known
8Insurance reviewLife, disability, umbrella insurance appropriate at FIRE
9Estate documentsWill, POA, beneficiaries current
10Sequence-of-returns stress testPortfolio modeled at -40% in Year 1 and survives
💡Pull the Trigger at 110%, Not 100%

Many FIRE planners recommend targeting 110-115% of your FIRE number before retiring. The extra 10-15% provides: buffer for early market downturns, healthcare underestimates, and unexpected expenses. It also combats One More Year syndrome by giving a clear, defined surplus trigger.

Deeper Analysis

FIRE checklist items 11-15

#Check ItemPass Criteria
11One More Year temptation addressedClear trigger criteria defined and committed to
12Purpose beyond workClear activities, projects, relationships planned
13Partner alignmentBoth partners agree on FIRE date and lifestyle
14Geographic planLocation decision made, cost-of-living validated
15Conservative scenario still worksPlan survives 5% real return and 3.5% SWR

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